PK has developed the SAFE TM (Statistical Aircraft Financing Evaluation) model to evaluate aircraft backed loans and investments. The model predicts expected aircraft resale prices over time. It includes a confidence interval surrounding such predictions, it factors the default risk of the obligor (borrower or lessee), and it returns a probability distribution of net present values of a planned loan/investment. Expected return, average downside risk and value at risk can be derived and used for structuring, pricing and/or selecting aircraft loans and investments.

An in-depth article describing SAFE TM may be downloaded and viewed via Adobe Acrobat.



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